With all the excitement on the Democratic side of the Presidential race, it's easy to overlook what's going on "over there." But in many ways, the Republican race is more interesting than our own-- and not just because we can say nasty things about their candidates with a clear conscience. [Not that conscience stops many of us from bashing our own fine candidates.]
The R race is completely up in the air-- you have the national frontrunner (Giuliani) tanking completely in the early states. You have the former frontrunner (McCain) given up for dead, then showing signs of life. You have the first serious Mormon candidate facing off against an ordained minister. And you have Ron Paul stirring things up in debates and online.
More below the fold...
Who will emerge victorious to be stomped by our Democratic nominee? Is anyone confident enough of their answer to that question to put money on it? Are you confident enough to narrow it down to 2 choices? Even 3?? I mean: I would comfortably wager that either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will be our nominee. If you added John Edwards to the mix, I'd wager my house. But there are NO three candidates on the R side I'd be so comfortable betting on.
The Republican race, it seems to me, illustrates the fractured nature of the Republican party. In several of the candidates one can see the different sections of the Republican coalition, and these coalition partners are not happy with each other. Several of the candidates bring to the fore the fault lines in the coalition, a coalition which was masterfully brought together by Bush and Rove.
- Huckabee, the candidate of the Religious Right. It has been one of the lingering questions in the R race: who will be the go-to candidate for the Religious Right? Huckabee's recent meteoric rise in the polls seems to give us the answer. But note that Huckabee is a bugaboo of the Club for Growth, and disdained by the more Establishment Republicans. Once his various embarrassing statements are more fully brought to light (on evolution, AIDS, various convicted rapists, etc.), he will be even more unacceptable to Wall Street Republicans.
- Rudy Giuliani, the candidate of the Angry White Men. Giuliani has also become the leading candidate of the "Tough On Terror" Republicans, those who see Islamic Jihadism as the leading challenge facing the country. This part of the party has taken shape largely since 9/11, but its outlines existed before. Giuliani's more liberal stances on social issues make him problematic for group #1, though a substantial subset of the Religious Right appears to have decided that the War On Terrah is more important than the War on Gay People or the War on Women Who Want to Control Their Own Bodies.
- Fred Thompson, the candidate of Wall Street Republicans. Bland, uncomfortable with the Religious Right, Grandpa Fred has tried to rally the Establishment to his cause, so far with little success. He is Ronald Reagan without the ability to inspire. His failure not only shows what a bad campaigner he is, but also how moribund the wing of the party he represents is, having lost most of its membership to #2.
- John McCain, the candidate of Sensible Conservatives. He's against torture, he's against Know-Nothing immigration policies. He tried to sway group #1 by kow-towing to the Religious Right (aka the agents of intolerance), but only succeeded in showing everyone that he had no principles. Religious conservatives still tend to find him utterly unacceptable, and his fall in the polls shows how few sensible conservatives there are left in the party. Lucky for us, he's probably the most electable in the bunch, but his chances of winning appear small.
This leaves:
- Mitt Romney, the candidate of "I'll Say Anything to Get Elected" and of Nice Hair Republicans. His success so far says much more about the amount of money he's spent and the lack of viable alternatives than it does about his appeal as a candidate. He transparently lacks any principles whatsoever, and as this is made more and more clear, I predict he will fall more and more.
- Ron Paul, the candidate of the Libertarian Right. A surprisingly vibrant group within the Grand Old Party, but his appeal has been magnified by support from outside the party. Too fringy to ever be taken seriously, he will annoy the frontrunners all the way to the end. We can only hope that if he decides to run as a 3rd party candidate, he will draw more votes from the R than the D...
And of course, the Single Issue (this time = immigration, or, Why the Berlin Wall Was a Good Idea) Candidate, Tancredo.
I suppose there are a few other candidates left whom I didn't mention, but they are too insignificant to matter.
All in all, it is difficult to predict who will come out of this with the nomination, and if enough Republicans will support him to make the GE race competitive. Will Giuliani emerge from the "Sex On the City" scandal and likely defeats in Iowa and NH to sweep the Super-Duper Tuesday states? Will McCain come roaring back? Will Huckabee continue to roll, deflecting questions about AIDS, rapists, and evolution? Will Romney successfully position himself as all things to all Republicans? Does Grandpa Fred have enough life in him to position himself as the fallback candidate once one of the aforementioned guys tanks? Time will tell....